According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID hospitalizations and oil futures prices, the Texas Employment Forecast estimates that jobs will increase by 5. While consumer demand remains strong, the strength of job growth is somewhat surprising given both labor market tightness and supply-chain challenges faced by businesses.
Supply-chain issues likely damped growth in September as Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report are that based on the forecast, , jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December will be 13 million.
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Two different models Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model are used depending on the industry level being estimated. Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports which are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance UI laws.
The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months. Reliability of the estimates. The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors.
Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability—that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations.
Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding. Employment estimates.
Changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment are cited in the analysis of this release only if they have been determined to be statistically significant at the percent confidence level. Measures of sampling error for the total nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions at www.
Measures of sampling error for more detailed series at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for states at the supersector level and for the private service-providing, goods-producing, total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website at www. Information on recent benchmark revisions is available online at www. Area definitions. The substate area data published in this release reflect the delineations issued by the U.
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